Sorry Bill and Frank, but I would not call that a "great year-end link".

I don't think you are reading them wrong. They are as you say, generally optimistic.

The problem I see with the list of predictions is that item #2 predicts increased home sales due to a predicted $25k tax cut for buying a home as well as other tax cuts for businesses in the industry.

Some of the following items on the list are based on item #2 coming true.

What stops me from getting excited about that is; when we talk about domestic spending we are talking about existing wealth changing hands. We are just moving around the money that is already here.

We need the creation of wealth. Our country needs intellectual property that brings in licensing fees from people in other countries. In other words, we need exports. The same old rules still hold true.

A tax break tells someone they can afford the monthly house payment, but only up to the amount that is equivalent to the tax break. It does not provide the down payment and fees.

If you divide a $25k tax break by a 20 year mortgage, your monthly payment can now be a whopping $104 lower. Some of the stimulus checks came to more than that. Do you feel stimulated by them? I don't see that $104 is going to have the ripple affect predicted by the list. There's a hockey stick for you!

Of course there are some people who will benefit from such tax breaks. But to say that spending instead of earning is going to stabilize the economy is a stretch. I say focus on bringing more money into the country and the internal spending will take care of itself. Anything else is just busy work.

You cannot use the money of an economy to increase that economy. It is already accounted for. You need to bring in wealth from outside.

There is a reason people in small towns move to the big city. The city money is not making it into the small town.

I agree with most of Doug Kass' predictions for the economy and the stock market.

The financial metrics I follow are improving. Housing prices are quickly approaching their long term trend, which will lead to increased demand.

And, if the new administration injects money in the economy (instead of giving us a pill to digest over time), there is a strong likelihood that the stock market and the economy will, as he says, "stabilize" in 3Q2009.