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Do the (early-stage investing) Math

Entrepreneurs
A lot's changed in this new economy, especially for entrepreneurs. Consider this: the old $3.8M pre-money valuations are gone, replaced by the new $1.8M pre-money values.

Likewise, the $1M raise, at least from angels, is a quaint memory. Today, $400K is the new million. Yes, it'll be harder to accomplish all you want, but let's consider the numbers. In 2007 you could raise $1M at a $4M pre-money, selling 20% of the company to your investors. Today, it's a close shave, but raising $400K at a $2M pre-money is only a 16.6% sale of your company.

Because you're gonna raise less, consider the virtues of bootstrapping, or take your company as far as you can with a friends and family round. Look to government sources for funding; with the decimation of angels and VCs (spoiler!), many jurisdictions will be offering grants to seed and early-stage entrepreneurs.

Angels
You've lost 40-60% of your net worth, but so has everyone, so you're in good company.

Even your best portfolio companies are being tested in this economy, some will not survive. Your diminished returns are moving further into the future.

Your asset allocation pie chart is all out of whack! That seed and early-stage category is way over-allocated. All of a sudden other asset classes begin to look better, safer and more liquid: many equities in the public markets are trading for hat sizes, single digits, and real estate, it's headed to levels we haven't seen in many years.

Double whammy: you've got to budget more for the pay-to-plays that are coming. A pay-to-play happens when the venture capital investors must put more money into the company and they compel all previous investors to do likewise, or suffer severe dilution. I recently faced a 90% dilution if I didn't opt into the pay-to-play terms; I paid.

The cavalry isn't coming: if you don't have VC partners in your deal, they're probably not coming to your B rounds, so plan ahead. As Mission Ventures' Dave Ryan at says, "set aside 2X for your portfolio companies", so instead of investing $25K one time, expect a second investment of an equal amount sometime down the road.

If you're in an angel fund, good. If you're not, if you're in a pledge group, good luck. Without a fund you'll have poor diversification, because you've got less money to invest in this sector you'll end up in fewer deals, and investing in early-stage is all about managing risk and diversification. Get into a fund, or start a fund.

VCs
Your returns are weak, yet it's time to start that new fund. IPOs are an endangered species. Your portfolio companies are sucking up more partner time. Let's face it, it's stressful being a venture capitalist.

The money you still have left in the fund has to go further. Those portfolio companies are gonna need more money and "syndicators have abandoned the scene". Plus, without a new fund coming online, your operational expenses are starting to weigh on your mind.

It's time to start thinking of getting in shape; you've got the time and the stress is killing. You'll feel better. Your head will clear; it'll be a great time to begin a new career.

Limited Partners
Remember the good ole days, when limited partners were allocating more to their venture capital portfolios? Those times are over.

It's called the Denominator Effect. It's a problem for angels and especially for limited partners; that pie chart problem again: over allocation. So not a single investment manager for any pension fund, college endowment or insurance company in the country is going to his board with a recommendation "let's double our VC allocations". This won't change anytime soon.

Comments

Thanks, Frank - a good reminder (a sly way to educate, er, remind investors about the math.)

And maybe "400K being the new million" is not such a bad thing?

The first angel I ever knew would say - if you can prove you need $1 million, you can always do the same for $200k (his one-fifth rule) - damned if it didn't always work.

I love recommending your blog - podcasts are great!
Norris

Here is a view from Ning CEO. At the TechCrunch Cloud computing Roundtable in Mountain View, Calif., Gina Bianchini, CEO of Ning, says that cloud gets the start-ups hitting the ground running sooner.

What per cent of the VC's and angels even do you feel look at start-ups emerging by using the cloud technology?

http://news.zdnet.com/2422-19178_22-274676.html?tag=nl.e539 (04:07)

Ning CEO on how start-ups can hit the ground running

At the TechCrunch Cloud Computing Roundtable in Mountain View, Calif., Gina Bianchini, CEO of Ning, says that cloud computing can give start-ups an edge by allowing them to focus on the application their business is
producing, and then gives them far wider distribution, through sites like Facebook, than was available just a few years ago.

One of your 'Frank Peters Show' listeners

Donald,

That's exactly what I said a few shows back when Dave Berkus and Peter Cowen were saying Cloud Computing is a hot area. I insisted it is not a hot area for Angels as it is already to late to do a cloud computing start-up and it is simply just a distribution channel. Now others are saying the same thing.

Bianchini's comments sound like someone is trying to rekindle the dotcom craze. It was a big deal back then that anyone could instantly go global. So now there is this new distribution channel; so what.

One still needs to identify what they would distribute that is a venture worthy investment. It's not like there are products just sitting around because they just need a better distribution channel in order to be successful.

Start-ups are not going to save their way into being successful. Saving money is just a requirement to make your sells more profitable, but it does not generate sells.

HI Frank,

Nothing like a wide reaching undiluted dose of reality!

I don't think anyone is 'singing Kumbaya' now ...

Regards, Andrew

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