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Scott Shane in NYC

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Not doing as many deals as you did in 2007?

For many angel groups that's the case, but is this downturn in funding based on "the ability or the willingness to do it?" asks this week's guest Scott Shane.

Scott's blog post "The Myth of an Ever-Expanding Entrepreneurial Youth" showed up on my iPhone as part of the front page of the New York Times. That's great exposure for the author of Fools Gold and Illusions of Entrepreneurship; it's a blog you should follow.

Show #240 (32:23) Listen

Comments

Wow Frank, you were the best part of this show; admitting that Angels waste Entrepreneur's time and asking if it is even possible to make money.

Frank, you are much too enamored with statistics. I didn't realize you have a Master's degree. Therefore you should realize that the quality or definition of the data set, establishes what can be learned. Mr. Shane himself on more than one show is often saying in response to questions "there is not enough good data". Also if you listen to Scott Shane in this show, you will see that he himself doesn't believe in the data but then pretends the data can show something that he has already said it cannot.

First of all Scott's data pool is much too large. He contaminates the sample by lumping the good with the bad and then expects to learn the good.

Plus he's going to use statistics to identify a wave. That's a laugh. The data comes from the past. By the time statistics confirms it everyone already knows it. Just like earlier this year when you said there were going to be less deals and investors would be focused on follow on rounds in their portfolios. Scott's statistics doesn't identify that for us, he just confirms what was already known and puts a number to it.

That was really great when you mentioned the amount of money Angels have already lost but he still doesn't have enough data. He really needs to first define which data matters and which data doesn't. Then he also needs to define if it is possible to collect meaningful data fast enough to reduce losses.

Scott was a total contradiction of himself in this show. First he told us that the failure rate is the same during good times and bad. I didn't think you should have been surprised by that. I remember when there was over a dozen search engines. In fact there were so many copycat or me too businesses during the dotcom boom, but they were short lived and so we forget that.

Then Scott's contradiction of himself came when he talked about identifying a wave that everyone could ride to success. Didn't he just tell us that there are just as many failures in a wave? So what's this notion that we are all going to be successful? If Scott separated winning investors and entrepreneurs from the losing ones in his data, he might come up with something useful.

Angels keep telling us that this is a numbers game and they invest in people because the business model, product, and or service are all going to change. But actions speak louder than words. If that was really how to succeed and if they really believed that, then once Angels identified the right person they would just repeatedly back that person; with the understanding that it's a numbers game but since they have the right person their odds will be better. Even the right person will fail since it is a numbers game, but since he is the right person he should get repeatedly funded in spite of the failures because eventually he will be worth it.

Since Angels don't play the numbers along with their identified right person, we can conclude that they don't really believe what they say they do. This is not to be confused with the teaching that failed entrepreneurs are better because they learn from their mistakes.

Thanks for admitting that Angels waste Entrepreneur's Time. The Angels on your show often do come across as self-centered and stingy. Numbers game, numbers game, numbers game, is almost all we hear from them; that and the fact that they can't be bothered to spend their time learning the necessary things.

There is no talk about how to ensure success of both the Angel and the Entrepreneur. Instead there is constant talk about how Angels cannot be bothered to spend the necessary time to learn the necessary things. Entrepreneurs are just a number to them and they are very stingy with their time.

I doubt I'm the only one who is fed up with all the garbage that Angels put out supposedly to help the Entrepreneur. Constantly telling us to; talk like this walk like that, in order to get funded.

So the Entrepreneur gets funded, goes on to fail, and maybe repeats the process once. But eventually due to the lack of returns for his investors, is unable to get funding ever again. Great help! Listening to your show, it doesn't seem to occur to TCA members that Entrepreneurs do not want to end up like the failed Angel and VC venture funds.

It seems you have quite a number of guests who have spoken as if funding is the goal. Entrepreneurs need their ventures to succeed, maybe even more than the Angel does. The consequences can be high for the Entrepreneur as well, not just the Angel. I'm reminded of the Bible story that asked who gave more to the temple, the rich man or the poor old woman who gave just two coins? The answer was the old woman because she gave a higher percentage of what she had, she gave all.

We can see an example of Angel advice gone wrong in TCA's most recent failed investment in Dr. Saad. I found an article that said that Dr. Saad originally approached TCA with an opportunity that was more modest, more achievable, and more useful to its target market of business users. But the Angels said he had to go big right away. To satisfy the Angels the entire concept was changed to include everyone on the internet. It became something too big and therefore unmanageable, and the new concept didn't match reality.

The venture went on to fail. Although Dr. Saad says it was the Angels that changed the concept, he's the one stuck with the reputation of failing. But the Angels will tell us what a great help they were to Dr. Saad and how valuable their advice and mentorship is.

When you have a guest that talks about funding as success, as the goal; we hear how they are willing to study and analyze Angels. Talk about ego, assuming they are going to find the answer to successful investing by looking at themselves. They're willing to study entrepreneurs. They're willing to study pitching, including length of time, size of font, layout, and so on. It seems they are willing to study everything except markets, business models, and customers.

You've had at least four guests that tell us to do exactly the opposite. Tom O'Malia tells us the importance of knowledge of the specific business and talked about his experience of when it was his job to turn various types of failing businesses around. You've had both Randy Lunn and Jim Armstrong tell us the importance of knowing the market. You've had Fred Farina tell us how he relies on the relationship the CalTech Professors have with big business to tell him what's going on in the markets. What their advice has in common is the importance of studying and learning.

You have this interest in aging and maybe there is a connection between aging and successful venture investing. I recently saw an episode of "Life (Part Two)" on PBS. It said that older people have just as good a memory as younger people but what slows down is their ability to learn. It takes older people longer to learn. So with some of your guests pointing to an importance in learning about the specific business, markets, and customers, in order to be successful, perhaps older Angels are at a disadvantage. But I suppose a younger Angels who isn't willing to learn is at the same disadvantage.

Angels that cannot be bothered to spend their time to learn the necessary things want to have their cake and eat it too. First they refuse to learn and then they tell us how valuable their advice is.

Not only do we find stories like how the Angels changed Dr. Saad's original business into something that failed, we also hear things like how the women of Budding Brilliance were encouraged for years to pursue a multi-hundred-million-dollar opportunity that was actually just a $200k opportunity. It's a numbers game for TriTech SBDC also. All of their clients don't have to succeed in order for them to get their government funding, the number of clients is much more important to them. They don't have an interest in telling Entrepreneurs to quit so they can cut their losses, save their reputations, and try again later.

Another reason I really liked this show is the amount of talking you did. You put my baby, Optimist, right to sleep. It was short lived though, as he woke up when Scott started talking more again.

     
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